Now, I tend to be all for proper writing style and correct punctuation, but alas, this is Monday and I'm already giving my early thoughts for next week's games. All of this analysis is entirely my first instinct, and thought I could really write 500+ words on each of these match-ups, I think there is a decent amount of merit on absolute top-of-the-head intuition. With that said, the following is merely random points that came to mind about each game, separated only by ellipses... and ending with my early leans (as well as the public's, if available). I tried my best to still make it easy to read... (These are still coherent sentence fragments, if nothing else.) Just a disclaimer, so without further ado:

• GB at Det (Thursday) - (off board)
• Oak +14 at Dal (Thursday) - gotta like Oak getting 2 TDs, but don't forget that its a Thanksgiving game and Dal should be fired up... still, Oak is fired up too w/ their new QB, and they have a good enough D to cause a turnover or two here against Romo, who's gotta be lacking confidence at this point... if nothing else, Dal has had plenty of trouble putting up points lately, so 2 TDs is a big immediate handicap... slight lean Oak (76% early on Oak)
• NYG -6' at Den (Thursday) - tough to call right away, Den couldn't look much worse right now, but if Orton is healthy and Marshall isn't being a bitch there is too much talent on that team to be giving 6... definitely a game that deserves a lot more thought as the week progresses... just how good is Den's D still at this point, and how inept has the NYG offense become?... solid lean no bet (60% early on NYG)
• Ind at Hou - (off board, pending tonight's game)
• Cle +14 at Cin - seems like Vegas is begging public to take Cle, who is still a horrid team... Cin had a meltdown this week, but it doesn't make them a bad team... 85 could go off and if Benson is healthy he should keep piling up points late in the game to hold off a back door cover... solid lean Cin (80% early on Cle)
• Was +9 at Phi - Was seems to be improving each week but Phi is just way too unpredictable... they could lose outright, could win by 28... I'd lean Was but if Phi actually utilizes their talent at all and Reid isn't a fucking idiot, they are too good to bet against facing a mediocre team at best... major lean no bet (no early %)
• Mia -3 at Buf - was all over Buf this week and it was clearly the right call, but Mia is still a long-long-shot potential playoff team playing with a purpose, whereas Buf is just out... like the Harvard man at QB for Buf but they still couldn't actually beat Jax this week, and Mia seems like a better team than Jax to me... home field shouldn't matter much since no one will be there... substantial lean lean Mia (no early %)
• Sea -3 at Stl - won't bet on Stl, so it's Sea or nothing, and immediate thought is nothing... Stl is capable of scoring (sort of) and Sea is getting beat to shreds lately... at home, Sea might be worth considering, but Stl getting 3 in their own house would be the play, but alas, my rule #1 is to never ever ever bet Stl... major lean no bet (61% early on Sea)
• TB +12 at Atl - as much as I love Atl, this seem like a somewhat inflated line... Atl gets wins, but never by much, and even though TB ended up getting whooped last week, Freeman looked decent for one whole drive and this team seems to have just a shred of hope lately... they are at least still playing... this is worth looking at the match-ups, see who is guarding Roddy, and will Turner play (and at what health)?... Flacco might be a bit rattled after handing over a sure win with his retarded pick this week too... slight lean TB (75% early of Atl)
• Car +3 at NYJ - because I think Mia is still a fairly decent team, you could say that Car is still on something of a roll lately even after that loss (at least against less than average teams)... Sanchize probably can't be much more down on himself after this week's 5 picks... but on the contrary, as bad as NYJ have been lately, they still have an excellent secondary and Delhomme might throw like 120 picks... could also see this line moving a bit to give Car positive juice... very slight lean Car (63% early on NYJ)
• Jax +3 at SF - little bit worried about Jax feeling positive coming off a win this week, but they are still a horrible team... also note though, that MJD is that team's only real chance here, and Ryan Grant ran all over SF last week... feel like SF is losing momentum fast and probably no longer have any playoff hopes, but Singletary had a good post-game press conference yesterday and I think he'll keep his guys playing hard enough... worth noting also that home field seems to matter less and less lately, meaning Vegas is essentially saying this would be a 6 point line on a neutral field, which seems obviously (and perhaps intentionally) a bit inflated...finally, look for how Vegas reacts to public's side percentages, as this could be a trap... semi-solid lean SF (53% early Jax)
• KC +14 at SD - KC is obviously getting better, and this new RB is just straight better than Johnson was, but they still have next to nothing on offense with Bowe out, and SD just seems to be rolling lately... gotta think the public will be all over SD here, and the line could even move past the two TDs, but right now I think SD could be a top 5 team in the NFL... substantial lean SD (no early %)
• Chi +10' at Min - these NFC North match-ups tend to be closer than expected, and Cutler (believe it or not) is capable of leading his team, but it is becoming more and more evident that Chi has no defense w/out Urlacher, and Min has SO many weapons on offense... not to mention a D with a nose for the endzone, and Cutler will throw at least one pick... don't love rolling with these high numbers lately, but still, this is less than two TDs... substantial lean Min (no early %)
• Ari at Ten - (off board, pending tonight's game)
• Pit at Bal (Sunday Night) - (off board, likely pending injuries)
• NE +3 at NO (MNF) - likely to be the most hyped game of the year to date, this line is obviously exactly what should have been expected... matter of fact, NE is even getting negative juice already at a couple books... NO, like Ind, looks like they are ripe for a loss lately, and it's worth noting that HC Sean Payton will lose a game somewhere just on principle... still sorta liking NO as my Super Bowl pick (especially with the emergence of Meachem... and if they're smart, they're still hiding Bush rather than just underutilizing him)... but this is week 11, not the playoffs... solid lean NE (53% early NE)

If I have some time throughout the week, I'll set aside doing anything productive and try to give some more tidbits as the week progresses, and if no one gets anything else out of this mess of fragmented intuitions, it's at least a fantastic case study of how the mind of an NFL handicapper works throughout the week. (And for what it's worth, I did go 10-2 last week, so who knows... maybe I'm getting hot?)

Best of luck to everyone with their plays this Week 12!

Oh, and just to make this an official Week 11 post: I think the Titans win in a very close one tonight. No time for a write-up, and no one will tail me anyway, but hell, why not??

Prediction: Titans 27, Texans 26

Play: Tennessee Titans +4 (small)

Though I do think 3 is a pretty fair line for this game...

(I wouldn't exactly bet the house on either side... But, I'm sure we're all going to bet it anyway, since it's the only NFL game tonight and we are all degenerates... which is, after all, why I post write-ups only for "special" NFL games like MNF and this one.) I digress...

Though I do think 3 is a pretty fair line, the Bears have been in relative disarray lately, and the NFL bettors motto really is (or perhaps should be) "What have you done for me lately?" The Bears haven't done much, outside of losing to a couple of mediocre teams by more than a mediocre margin. Cincy absolutely lit up the Bears depleted secondary, as did Arizona--and having watched the game, it wasn't even as close a game as the 41-21 score indicates.

Truth be told, this downfall isn't exactly unpredictable. At the beginning of the season, the biggest hit against the Bears was that they lacked a true possession WR, which evidence shows really couldn't be more true. On the other side of the ball, they’re talented but inconsistent D was obviously held together by the veteran savvy of Urlacher. In my opinion, the end of his season directly correlated with that of the Bears'.

Granted, staying with the “What have you done for me lately?” philosophy, the Niners haven’t done much but lose lately either. They haven't been the definition of consistency lately, but it would be an exaggeration to say that their early-season success was a fluke. Looking at their team RIGHT NOW: Alex Smith is a decent, albeit developing, QB; Crabtree is obviously extraordinarily talented and is learning the offense quickly; and Vernon Davis is quickly becoming one of the best receiving tight ends in the league. You can't argue with all of that against a shaky D.

And given that, what do the Bears have to counter with? Cutler hasn't lived up to his billion-dollar contract, Forte is being underutilized, and as mentioned previously, they have no wideouts. For the Bears to win this game, I feel as if they will need some scores outside of their offense: perhaps Knox gets a return TD on special teams, or the defense comes up with a clutch pick-six. Otherwise, I honestly think that San Fran is simply the better team.

Finally, back to Vernon Davis. This guy caught 10 balls for 100+ yards last week, has all the confidence in the world, is playing out of his mind, is clearly the favorite target of his young QB. And on top of all that, he mouthed off this week with the classic “guarantee”, stating that the Niners will “destroy” the Bears this week. I believe him. Need more? The Bears have given up an average TD per game over their last four, and are especially vulnerable to big receivers. Davis is bigger than any of the Bears defensive backs, and for that matter, half of their linebackers! Finally, Chicago’s secondary is somewhat banged up, and starting safety Al Afalava is a game-time decision tonight. Vernon Davis has been THE GUY in the red zone lately, and I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if he was the difference maker in tonight’s game.

Prediction: 49’ers 31, Bears 20

Plays: San Francisco 49’ers -3 (small); Over 43

Bonus Prop Play: Vernon Davis first TD of game +900 (5Dimes) !!!